Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
